UFC Fight Night 65 Hunt vs Miocic…
Here. We. Go!
Another tricky endeavor but at least it’s not as bad as the last one. I’ve actually heard of most of these people this time. Still…knowing someone’s name and having a firm grasp of their abilities in the cage are two totally different things. That being said, it’s not my place to not make large sweeping gambling decisions. First up on UFC Fight Pass:
Ben Nguyen (+170) vs Alptekin Ozkilic (-185)
The beginning is always the toughest. I can’t even pronounce the 2nd guy but Ozkilic (9-3) is favored after getting knocked out by John Lineker way late in the 3rd round in his last match. Prior to that he lost a unanimous decision after losing a split decision to nobodies. Nguyen (13-5) finally gets the call to the UFC after tearing up on the Nitro MMA scene (ugh… who names these things?). Benny Badass has 11 finishes and been finished 4 times by KO, but he hasn’t lost in any fashion since 2010. hmm. Nevertheless, I like Nguyen here as the underdog. I think it’s a case of Vegas not knowing who he is.
Nguyen for the win by Decision
Vic Grujic (-110) vs Brendan O’Reilly (+100)
Razor close line here. Team Canada’s TUF outing, Grujic (6-4) is at the end of the line. His middle-aged (ok, 38 isn’t middle-aged but it’s really old for fighters) and he’s coming off a 1st round TKO. 4 losses in the last 6 fights begs the question, “How bad were the other Canadians that tried out?”. For O’Reilly (5-1) who’s coming off his first loss, by decision, in his Octagon debut, I think we see a turnaround and start to his UFC career. Vic is tough but Brendan outworks him with youth.
O’Reilly by Decision to retire
Alex Chambers (+190) vs Kailin Curran (+210)
Tough call here. On one hand you have Chambers (4-2) with a more aggressive/finishing style but on the other hand, those finishes came on the other side of 35. In Curran (3-1) you get a fighter with a ton of potential who was overwhelmed and ultimately stopped by the adorable Paige Van Zant. I haven’t seen anything to make me believe Alex is going to “bring it” and Kailin will simply out work her. I’m not happy about it.
Curran… Decision #3 and we’re off to a slow start
Dylan Andrews (+100) vs Brad Scott (-110)
At 18-7 overall and fighting for over a decade, Australia’s Dylan Andrews has been around. He loves to stand and poses a decent muay thai threat to anyone… as long as he doesn’t seem asleep while he’s out there. Scott (9-3) was runner up on The Smashes season of TUF, losing in the finals by decision to the very good Robert Whittaker. His recent loss was a back and forth battle and if he can put some aggression into slow starting Andrews, Dylan won’t just seem asleep.
B.S. by KO in the 2nd
Lisa Ellis (+165) vs Bec Rawlings (-175)
Bec Rawlings enters the octagon with an underwhelming 5 – 4 record after an underwhelming loss to Heather Clark at The Ultimate Fighter finale. Fortunately for Bec, Lisa Ellis (15-9) was way more underwhelming in every way. I remember watching Lisa’s fight with Felice and thinking “Damn, she wanted out of there in the worst way.” Actually, I felt that way about her entire time on TUF. Bec has the potential to be an aggressive dominating athlete in the cage and in this fight, that’s going to shine through big time.
Bec by Looking the part, and finishing in the 2nd
Smilin’ Sam Alvey (-400) vs Dan Kelly (+355)
I think the oddsmakers are trying to tell us something, and that something is “The ‘O’ must go!”. Dan Kelly (9-0) brings a spotless record and zero hype behind him…I guess being undefeated isn’t as great as it use to be… Truth be told, Dan beat Pat Walsh by exhaustion. Bloated, overweight, under-cardio’d, flabby, piss poor weight cut, I’m fighting over my weight class Patrick Walsh. Nothing impressive there.
Smilin’ Sam Alvey (25-6) is a fan favorite who literally delivers on his nickname unlike some fighters (lookin’ at you Pitbull).
Gotta love the guy. Back to back KO’s over Dylan Andrews & Cezar Ferreira were impressive but don’t bank on the hat trick. I’ve got Alvey out working Kelly the whole time, being his usual durable self, and grinning ear to ear as he picks up the decision.
Smilin’ Sam happy about the Decision
Kyle Noke (-110) vs Jonavin Webb (+100)
The Ultimate Fighter: Canada vs Australia gave us a lot of meh. Noke (20-7) proved he deserved to captain a team by leading the way in MEH. Out classed and boring in his fight against Cote, I didn’t understand why he was coaching TUF and why I was watching this matchup. Not a good sign for Aussie MMA (for the bright future of Aussie MMA click here).
A week ago Noke was set to fight Andreas Stahl (who?) but scratch that gameplan because injuries happen and now he’s facing UNDEFEATED 8-0 JONAVIN WEBB… who?… Ok, I’ve never heard of him and as explained above, undefeated don’t mean squat these days. What we do know is that the Renzo Gracie Philly fighter was slated to rematch Lyman Good this weekend in the CFFC. The first fight rattled his cage and while ending in the 3rd as a no contest that was very fortunate, for Webb, he did get that “taste” of losing without actually losing and hopefully lit a fire under him to “comeback” better than ever.
This ain’t your typical replacement fighter. Spyder presents challenges that Noke will need every bit of his experience to stay safe from. Sadly, not getting submitted doesn’t win fights. Webb is in shape and ready for the UFC.
Webb by Decision
Hatsu Hioki (-290) vs Dan Hooker (+260)
Hatsu (27-8) put together a great MMA career until about 3 years ago when he hit a 1-4 skid ending with being stopped for the first time in his career. Meanwhile Dan “Insert Awesome Nickname” Hooker (11-5 on sherdog. 12-5 on ufc.com and nonexistent on Wikipedia) will look to rebound from a decision loss this past September to Maximo Blanco that came after back to back wins by TKO and a 6 fight finishing streak (2 by submission & 4 by TKO). So who takes it?
Hioki has been in with killers on the international scene and always left the ring conscious. Dan isn’t the man to change that. For that matter,Dan isn’t going to grind out a decision on Hioki either. Hioki gets the win and I’m leaning towards…
Hioki by 3rd round submission (triangle)
The Main Card
James Vick (+160) vs Jake Matthews (-170)
THE O MUST GO… not to reuse a cliche but in this fight, there’s no choice. It’s time to say goodbye to someone’s perfect record. Vick (7-0) always strikes me as having a less than athletic way about him. It’s almost like he’s been forced to move a certain way to fight and it’s never gotten comfortable. Sure he’s won. Half the time it’s been decisive. Matthews (9-0; 44-0 on Wikipedia!!) 
at 20 years old reminds me of standout high school athletes headed to top colleges and ready for the pros. He’s a physically impressive kid who endured 5 illegal elbows to the back of the head in the fight with then undefeated Dashon Johnson to eventually pummel Johnson and finishing with a triangle. The fact that he didn’t get finished by Olivier Aubin-Mercier on the TUF Nations is not terrible either.
Jake Matthews by Ground & Pound finish 2nd Rd
Sean O’Connell (+130) vs Anthony Perosh (-140)
From Jake Matthews’ youth to elderly pugilist Anthony Perosh (15-8)…ugh… Sorry Australia and AARP but I just don’t feel good about what might happen when Perosh fights. There’s nothing I like about the way he fights. Nothing. Sean O’Connell (16-6) has had two losses in the UFC and they both were short notice fights. Younger, tougher… whatevs…Sean takes it.
Sean O’Connell by TKO (ref stoppage)
Brad Tavares (-130) vs Robert Whittaker (+120)
Serious potential in this fight. Tavares (13-3) is a grinder!! Good luck getting him off you and if you do, he’s right back on. Brad hit a two fight skid with (respectable) losses to Yoel Romero & Tim Boetsch before getting back in the win column with a unanimous decision win over former title contender Nate Marquardt.
Standing across the cage is none other than Pernell Whittaker… oh, wait… my bad… it’s Smashes winner Robert Whittaker (13-4). Hard to believe RJ will be fighting for the 7th time in the UFC since December 2012…10th time for Tavares! My how time flies. With 13 wins and 11 of those by stoppage, it looks like there’s a great opportunity for a finish here, but Tavares doesn’t go down easy (haha, insert filthy joke here).
With the Court McGee fight as a jumping off point, I can see this going quite similar but better on the score cards for Whittaker this time around. If he can keep Court off him, maybe he’ll do the same with Brad.
Whittaker by Decision
Mark Hunt (+220) vs Stipe Miocic (-220)
SLUGFEST!! That’s no prediction. Everyone expects it.
Will we get Stipe picking Hunt apart or a walk off homerun for the Samoan?
Stipe (12-2) is pretty good. Hunt (10-9) is pretty good. But no one should be surprised that there is a lack of talent at Heavyweight in spite of the top few guys. Both these guys aren’t in those top few. Sure Hunt has had a career resurgence no one saw coming and Stipe did something to Fabio Maldonado that just doesn’t happen.
But then Stipe looked a step behind and never really challenged against JDS and Hunt lost to JDS, Antonio Silva (juiced) and Werdum on short notice. Where does that put these guys in the rankings and title contention? Who knows…. let’s focus on them.
Miocic likes to fight. He wants to throw hands and exchange. You. Can. Not. Do. That. With. Hunt. It led to the eventual loss to JDS and hey, it caused you to get tko’d by Struve. Unless there’s a major gameplan change, it’s lights out.
HUNT 4TH ROUND WALKOFF
And now…
My Fantasy MMA Lineup and some notes
Hunt: Best pick for a KO and salary cap steal at $8900 vs Stipe at $10,800
Hioki: $11,000 vs Hooker at $8500
Bec: $10,600 vs Ellis at $8,800
Nguyen: Relatively unknown at $8,400 (2nd cheapest) vs Ozkillic at $10,900
Jake Matthews: $10,500 vs Vick at $9,000
With $600 left to spend there’s little wiggle room so if you don’t like one of these picks you might have to do a lot of moving salaries around to get the right lineup. Good luck and we’ll see you in the Aftermath!
mmapicker 